In the business world, especially those involved in production. As a basis for decisions, it is very important to predict things that will happen in the future. Forecasting is a process that will help any business because of the many benefits we can derive from it. So, one of them is to pay close attention to supply chain management. In addition, useSupply-Chain-Management-Softwarecan complete transparency and analytics to accurately manage products and materials. Therefore, companies can also make good business forecasts.
Table of contents
- Definition of prognosis
- Purposes and functions of forecasting
- Factors affecting prognosis
- 1. Product nature
- 2. Distribution method
- 3. The company's position in the market
- 4. Level of Competition
- 5. Historical Data
- types of prognosis
- 1. Based on time
- 2. Based on function
- 3. Based on data availability
- 4. Based on the type of agreement
- forecast method
In this article we will discuss what forecasts are. What goals can we achieve with forecasts? and what is the method? Check out the discussion below to find the answer.
Definition of prognosis
Forecasting is a process that can predict future events by conducting a study or analysis of past data to find systematic relationships, patterns, and trends. In other words, forecasts themselves are an integral part of any business organization and for all major management decisions.
In future planning, forecasts become the basis for any business. If a company can predict what will happen in the future, it can change its current habits and take a position that will be much more developed in the future.
Purposes and functions of forecasting
Forecasts have several objectives and according to Heizer and Render (2009:47) these are the following:
- To review current and past company policies and see how far the influence will go in the future.
- Forecasting is required because of the time lag between when a company policy is set and when it begins to be implemented.
- Forecasting is the basis of business depreciation in a company to increase the effectiveness of a business plan.
In addition, the forecast has a function to be seen at the time of decision-making. A good decision is based on considering what will happen when the implementation of the decision begins. When the predictions we make are not accurate, the forecasting problem is also a problem that we face again and again "Ginting, 2007".
Factors affecting prognosis
Forecasts have several influencing factors, here is the list:
1. Product nature
The production period of a product is very influential. For example, if a company's product has a long or short time to survive in the market. In addition, the manufacture of the product itself can also influence the prognosis. So you can useE-Procurement-Softwareensure procurement cost efficiency.
2. Distribution method
A company's ability to reach its consumers in the marketplace is one of the factors.
3. The company's position in the market
The company's position in the market also affects the forecast, whether the company is a leader, follower, or niche.
4. Level of Competition.
The position of the company compared to its competitors is also one of the influencing factors in the forecast.
5. Historical Data.
All event data related to the company in the past. To clarify, this is a very important factor. Because this is a reference for companies in the forecast.
types of prognosis
Of course, there are several types of forecasts. The following is an explanation of thesedifferent types:
1. Based on time
First, forecasting methods are based on time. This method is divided into three parts, namely:
- Long-term, namely forecasts that use analysis over a longer period of time, usually last more than two years.
- Medium-term, with a term of three months to two years.
- Short-term, with a term of zero to three months.
2. Based on function
Based on their function, according to Heizer and Render (2009:47), the planning of future operations is divided into three types, namely:
Economic Forecast “Economic Forecast”.
Focus on forecasting inflation rates, availability of funds, funds needed for housing and other planning indicators.
Forecasting technology “technological forecasting”.
Be aware of the level of technological advancement that can bring exciting new products to market that require new plants and equipment.
Demand Forecast "Demand Forecast"
The forecast aims to determine the forecast of demand and market conditions.
3. Based on data availability
The availability of data determines how the forecast can be performed. The types or based on data are as follows:
The company or organization does not have sufficient data for analysis. So the forecast results will also be very subjective as the results of the analysis will vary. For example, from qualitative methods: investigations, interviews, discussions.
Regardless of whether the company or organization has sufficient data, the quantitative method is usually used. Where in the process of analysis using data and numbers approach.
4. Based on the type of agreement
Forecasts based on the type of agreement are divided into two types "Ginting, 2007", namely:
based on the feelings or intuition of the person composing it.
based on relevant historical data, using techniques and methods to analyze the data.
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As we saw in the previous explanation, there are two types of forecasts based on data availability:
Qualitative methods are used when the organization or company has no historical data. Either because the data isn't viable or doesn't match what you want to predict. Forecasting is mainly based on intuitive thoughts, opinions and knowledge and experience of the compilers. Qualitative is also based on the results of research such as seller opinions, sales manager opinions, expert opinions and consumer surveys.
The following are the most common qualitative methods:
This method conducts surveys of consumers, interest groups or research of practitioners and even competitors. Also use asurvey appto make your company's surveys easier, more automated and more effective.
In this method, a group of experts from different backgrounds come together to give opinions in a systematic way.
This personal insight is a simple forecasting method and is no longer used by large companies. In addition, this method is used to discuss or consult references from people who are experienced and experts in their field.
In the consensus method, participants participate in open discussions. This is the opposite of the Delphi method. As a result of this consensus, the methods are heavily biased. Therefore, many large companies have abandoned this method.
The quantitative methods that companies or organizations use when they have sufficient data. In addition, this method is the analysis process using the data and number approach. The following types of quantitative methods are:
time series method
The time series method is a method that uses an analysis between the variables to be predicted with the time variable.
cause and effect method
This method is based on the relationship between the estimated variables and other variables that affect them. However, the variable does not have the form of time.
In summary, this is an explanation of prognosis, from understanding to methods. This knowledge is very important because forecasts allow companies to predict what will happen in the future. Until the company can finally grow. Planning is completely different. It is a process of systematic preparation of activities to be carried out in order to achieve specific goals.
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A prognosis may be described as excellent, good, fair, poor, or even hopeless. Prognosis for a disease or condition is largely dependent on the risk factors and indicators that are present in the patient.What is the purpose of prognosis? ›
The goal of a study of prognosis is to predict which person will have an outcome of interest (e.g., mortality or favourable functional outcome after head injury) and which person will not.What does prognosis mean? ›
(prog-NO-sis) The likely outcome or course of a disease; the chance of recovery or recurrence.What is prognosis and example? ›
A prognosis is their educated prediction of the course of the disease and how a person may recover. For example, a cancer prognosis depends on multiple factors, such as the type of cancer and its stage.What is prognostic method? ›
Prognosis--the prediction of the course and outcome of disease processes--plays an important role in patient management tasks like diagnosis and treatment planning. As a result, prognostic models form an integral part of a number of systems supporting these tasks.What are measures of prognosis? ›
It refers to the possible outcomes of a disease (e.g. death, chance of recovery, recurrence) and the frequency with which these outcomes can be expected to occur. Sometimes the characteristics of a particular patient can be used to more accurately predict that patient's eventual outcome.What is prognosis quizlet? ›
Prognosis definition. the process of predicting the future about a patients condition.Does prognosis mean diagnosis? ›
A diagnosis is an identification of a disease via examination. What follows is a prognosis, which is a prediction of the course of the disease as well as the treatment and results. A helpful trick is that a diagnosis comes before a prognosis, and diagnosis is before prognosis alphabetically.Why is prognosis important to a patient? ›
Assessment of relevant prognostic factors can help to identify which patients are more or less likely to experience a given outcome, and can serve as a basis for clinical decisions about treatment.